Horse math

An aside note:

What do we do if we like say 4 horses in a race? We can't find a good reason to eliminate any.

Hypothetically speaking:

Suppose joe public odds for our horses are:

A) 3-1

B) 7-2

C) 8-1

D) 6-1

Lets suppose we rate each of these horses as equals. Do we pass this race. 8-1 and 6-1 are within our goal of 4-1 or better! How can we decide.

Lets look at it from an expected value point of view. E(v) expectation, edge. What ever you want to call it. Me I like E(v)

How many times do we find our winner form among our top 4 picks? Lets say its 75% of the time. This says that each of our horses has a 18.75% chance of winning. This is aprox 9-2 odds for each horse. Now lets calculate our E(v) for this situation.

E(A) .1875 x 3 - .8125 = -.25

E(B) .1875 x 3.5 - .8125 = -.16 please note 7-2 = 3.5-1

E(C) .1875 x 8 - .8125 = .68

E(D) .1875 x 6 - .8125 = .31

We run like the wind from horses A and B they give -neg expectation -E(v) therefore we would consider only horses C and D. A win bet on C is our best bet. If we are Conservative we can bet both C and D and still have a +E(v) on our bets. Something to think about.

Remember our value comes from our win pool prob of 75% picking winners from our top 4 choices when they have equally likely outcomes to win. In our minds anyway.

See you at the races. By the way at 9-2 what is a fair exacta price? Hint figure out the prob of (2) two 9-2 horses coming in together and change to odds. But remember we don't want fair prices we want more then fair.