The Short Price

You can see the difficulty of short prices. And why action junkies can't place a horse using a short price. Anything after the first "place price" say $2.60 that looses destroys your profit. You need 4 place hits to cover your loss. So if we can find a comfortable horse to bet on and leave it at that then one short horse is enough. After all $200 at $2.60 is $60. Not going to make you rich. But you get the satisfaction your handicapping was correct and a boost in your ego I suspect. I Don't suggest a $200 bet size. It just an example of my principle of a PROFIT is a PROFIT. Even a 60 cent profit.

The Penn race was a sloppy track, lots of mud. Prior races were on a fast track. So we can see that a quality horse can win a race. But I am going to add a rule to SBPr Same track conditions as previous race.

What we have as far as tracks is:

1. Same track condition as last race fast = fast.

2. Same distance as last race 6f = 6f

A finish of 1st or 2nd means our horse doesn't mind the distance. A little leeway say 5 1/2 to 6f is probably OK. So I'm adding Same track condition.

I also am looking at using just a fast track as a SBPr

If we open the DRF we see a lot of information that we are not using at this time. I don't want to get into paralyses by analysis. Their are other factors such as Beyer's speed, class, running line etc. As for Beyer's speed our picks generally fall in the higher speed figures 80+. As far as class, a 5,000 clm moving to 7,500 clm and in our rating system as a bet is not a jump out of class. I mean lets use common sense. 5,000 to 15,000 ok I'd wonder. I think most of our picks will be small movements within reason. A large up or down means something else is going on and I don't want to have to reason it out. We are looking for a handicapping strategy that takes culls out a horse's specific attributes for that race.


So lets look at our pick Strategy:

1. No shippers - last race at same track.

2. Same distance +/-, plus - minus what? We will talk about it. 6f -5 1/2f vs/vs example.

3. Top % jockey. What % makes sense. 15% and above. I think 10% is OK.

4. Field of 12 or less.

5. Post position 4 or better. Might consider 6 in field of 10, 11, 12

6. Won or placed in it last race. 3rd if it was within 1 length.

7. Raced in the past 21 days remember at the same track. Might look at 30 days.

8. Same track condition Fst = Fst

Remember our strategy's rules are to get us to 25% win @4-1/3-1 coverage.

See you next time.